A bus blast that killed three may allow Damascus to crack down, but it calls into question the effectiveness of its rule by force
Chris Phillips
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 3 December 2009
"The explosion that ripped through a bus of Iranian pilgrims in Damascus, killing at least three people, will send shock waves through Syria. Until recently Syrians were used to seeing such blasts on their television screens rather than on the streets of their own cities, which they considered a rare stable point in the Middle East.
Chris Phillips
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 3 December 2009
"The explosion that ripped through a bus of Iranian pilgrims in Damascus, killing at least three people, will send shock waves through Syria. Until recently Syrians were used to seeing such blasts on their television screens rather than on the streets of their own cities, which they considered a rare stable point in the Middle East.
The explosion will remind Syrians of a bomb attack last September and the assassination of Imad Mughniyah in 2008. All of this adds to a growing sense that Damascus is no longer immune from the carnage regularly seen in neighbouring Iraq and Lebanon.......
In spite of the destruction, however, the Ba'ath regime can actually use explosions such as this to its advantage in the short term. It can portray itself as a fellow victim of al-Qaida-type terrorism to western powers in its attempts to continue an international rehabilitation. At the same time, it can use the threat of future attacks to justify its tight grip on its own population, boosting a security presence and further stifling opposition.
In the long term, however, the regime has a developing problem. Whether this explosion proves to be a terror attack or not, the perception that its iron-fisted approach to governing can protect Syria's civilians from the carnage of its neighbours is being challenged. Internal militant groups do exist, and are willing to strike. Three explosions, alongside Israel's raid on a suspected nuclear facility in 2007 and the US attack over the eastern border from Iraq in late 2008 openly question the Ba'ath regime's claim to provide "autocratic stability"......."
In spite of the destruction, however, the Ba'ath regime can actually use explosions such as this to its advantage in the short term. It can portray itself as a fellow victim of al-Qaida-type terrorism to western powers in its attempts to continue an international rehabilitation. At the same time, it can use the threat of future attacks to justify its tight grip on its own population, boosting a security presence and further stifling opposition.
In the long term, however, the regime has a developing problem. Whether this explosion proves to be a terror attack or not, the perception that its iron-fisted approach to governing can protect Syria's civilians from the carnage of its neighbours is being challenged. Internal militant groups do exist, and are willing to strike. Three explosions, alongside Israel's raid on a suspected nuclear facility in 2007 and the US attack over the eastern border from Iraq in late 2008 openly question the Ba'ath regime's claim to provide "autocratic stability"......."
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