Trapped inside the fear bubble of the Egyptian military

Human rights activists show caution in criticising the Egyptian military, fearful of the uncertain political climate.

One of the Best Analyses of the Egyptian Situation
Highly Recommended Reading

By Mark LeVine
Al-Jazeera

"....However the Muslim Brotherhood sit-ins at Raba'a al-Adawiyya and al-Nahda end, it is undeniable that this disaster is one that the Brotherhood has largely brought upon itself. Whether attempting to govern by alienating most every constituency outside the military, or establishing sit-ins in crowded residential zones with little room for escape should government forces attack, the Brotherhood's leadership has shown a remarkable level of strategic myopia during the last two years that could well cost the movement dearly in blood and social standing for years to come.....

But instead of working to advance the revolution it was late to join, from the moment Mubarak was removed from power the Brotherhood and its soon-to-be-established Freedom and Justice Party strengthened a relationship with the military and deep state that it had been building for years. Ironically, this strategy facilitated both its assumption of, and ultimately removal from, power precisely because with the military as its patron (however half-hearted), it could follow its most authoritarian, patriarchal and chauvinistic instincts rather than laying the foundation for an inclusive and progressive political culture in the long term.
The Brotherhood isn't alone to blame in this process. As Sally Toma, one of the central figures of the January 25 (2011) uprising and co-founder of the newly established Manifesto Masr (Egypt) project, explains, "We became extras to our own revolution that the Muslim Brotherhood and army negotiated. We allowed it to happen, that was our mistake.".....

I also cannot think of a single revolutionary figure - by which I mean a figure that actually played a role in the revolution and not merely after February 11, 2011 - who didn't think Morsi's removal wasn't both necessary and welcome. However one wants to critique the manner of Morsi's removal and whether it can be considered meaningful or democratic or revolutionary, the fact that almost the entirety of Egypt's liberal and progressive political and activist figures, as well as tens of millions of citizens, turned so viscerally against him reveals a profound betrayal of public trust by a movement long famed for its abundance of precisely this commodity.....

Even some human rights activists have told me that "now is not the time to take on the military," although the majority believes it has an obligation to condemn all abuses and violence, no matter the perpetrator.

The Tamarrod movement's wholehearted support of the military-led transition is not surprising, as several of its leaders are known for Nasserist sympathies that naturally ally them to the military. For most activists, however, the argument is at heart strategic rather than ideological or moral. There is a sharp divide of opinion about whether anything can be achieved by taking on the military when it is in the midst of an "existential struggle" against the Brotherhood (as several activists described it) and enjoys, at least for the moment, extremely broad public support......

More important in my view is the belief expressed by almost half a dozen activists in the course of a week of conversations that the revolutionary movement was never going to be able to defeat both the Brotherhood and the military in a struggle for Egypt's future. And so to have the army hand such an epic defeat to the Brotherhood is a gift whose value is hard to overestimate - which is precisely why so many Leftists are loathe to turn it down.

"Let them fight each other," is a common refrain one hears among activists of various stripes, with the assumption that once the military finishes the Brotherhood off but has failed to achieve any of its promised changes, the revolutionaries will be in a much stronger position to continue the revolution than they would have otherwise been.

There is a strong logic to this view. But it is, first, a calculation that could well be wrong - the military could well emerge much stronger from its defeat of the Brotherhood, and through its control of the economic levers improves the lives of ordinary Egyptians enough to delay the much anticipated day of reckoning by years.....

"We are many but we feel alone," Sally Toma told me before we parted as she considered the number of people who, while presently silent, still believe that the day of reckoning between the people and the military/deep state will arrive sooner or later. As the military and Egyptian power elite's true colours inevitably return to view, the now lonely voices advocating for the revolution's original and inevitable trajectory of radical and systematic change will likely find themselves in increasingly good company."