AN IMPORTANT ARTICLE
By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
Asia Times
""If there's an attack on Iran by Israel and the US, there's no way to prevent it from becoming a nuclear war." - Former Cuban president Fidel Castro....
Is this baseless paranoia or a tissue of political realism? An examination of the potential "worst-case scenario" in a future US-Iran and or US+Israel versus Iran conflict favors Castro's dire warning, for the following reasons.
First, the US now has a new nuclear posture that leaves the door open for a nuclear offensive.....
Second, in being open to possibly using nuclear weapons against a perceived "rogue state" such as Iran, the US government is likely to tap into its arsenal of tactical or "smart" nukes that are carried on US warships, submarines and bombers. The "bunker-buster" nuclear missiles can be unleashed under the excuse of a lack of an alternative to get to Iran's underground inventory of weapons of mass destruction......
A third reason why Castro may be correct in his prediction that any conflict with Iran will degenerate into a nuclear one is that the US is overstretched in two wars and has numerous other commitments around the world and, as a result, is incapable of sustaining a protracted war with Iran.....
The fourth reason why a flare-up between Iran and US may turn nuclear is that a war with Iran may actually go badly for the US and/or Israel initially.....
Fifth, Israel, which has several hundred nuclear warheads, may unpack some of its hitherto clandestine nuclear power against Iran to defeat Iran militarily and thus acquire unchallenged hegemony in the region.
Sixth, Castro's premonition about the nuclear potential of any military conflict between the US and Israel against Iran must be drawn from Castro's long military career and his keen knowledge of the spiraling dynamic of an unpredictable asymmetrical warfare that could be brought to stable conclusion by resorting to nuclear weapons. Such a strategy may assure that the defeated Iranians would not dare continue with a clandestine nuclear program....."
Asia Times
""If there's an attack on Iran by Israel and the US, there's no way to prevent it from becoming a nuclear war." - Former Cuban president Fidel Castro....
Is this baseless paranoia or a tissue of political realism? An examination of the potential "worst-case scenario" in a future US-Iran and or US+Israel versus Iran conflict favors Castro's dire warning, for the following reasons.
First, the US now has a new nuclear posture that leaves the door open for a nuclear offensive.....
Second, in being open to possibly using nuclear weapons against a perceived "rogue state" such as Iran, the US government is likely to tap into its arsenal of tactical or "smart" nukes that are carried on US warships, submarines and bombers. The "bunker-buster" nuclear missiles can be unleashed under the excuse of a lack of an alternative to get to Iran's underground inventory of weapons of mass destruction......
A third reason why Castro may be correct in his prediction that any conflict with Iran will degenerate into a nuclear one is that the US is overstretched in two wars and has numerous other commitments around the world and, as a result, is incapable of sustaining a protracted war with Iran.....
The fourth reason why a flare-up between Iran and US may turn nuclear is that a war with Iran may actually go badly for the US and/or Israel initially.....
Fifth, Israel, which has several hundred nuclear warheads, may unpack some of its hitherto clandestine nuclear power against Iran to defeat Iran militarily and thus acquire unchallenged hegemony in the region.
Sixth, Castro's premonition about the nuclear potential of any military conflict between the US and Israel against Iran must be drawn from Castro's long military career and his keen knowledge of the spiraling dynamic of an unpredictable asymmetrical warfare that could be brought to stable conclusion by resorting to nuclear weapons. Such a strategy may assure that the defeated Iranians would not dare continue with a clandestine nuclear program....."
No comments:
Post a Comment