With Iran's supreme leader running scared from domestic unrest, a more belligerent White House could play right into his hands
Simon Tisdall
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 5 January 2012
"Tehran's vow to prevent US warships transiting international waters in the strait of Hormuz, following 10 days of provocative Iranian missile tests and naval exercises, is seen in Washington as evidence that ramped-up western sanctions are finally beginning to bite.
While this conclusion may be correct, there is always the danger of a disastrous miscalculation. Iran could be merely sabre-rattling, as American analysts suggest. But what if it is not?
Seen from Tehran, the most serious threat to the survival of the regime led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei comes from within, not without – a consideration not sufficiently understood in the west. The political establishment is riven by deep divisions, principally between economic reformers loyal to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and clerical arch-conservatives backed by the Revolutionary Guards and a wealthy, corrupt merchant class that has grown fat on the 1979 revolution.....
In other words, confident statements by the White House and state department that Iran is buckling under sanctions pressure appear to blithely ignore the possibility that the regime is being pushed into a corner from which it will come out punching, not negotiating. One result may be an acceleration of its nuclear activities – the opposite of what Obama wants. And then there is the unpredictable Gulf tinderbox. Fearing fatal insurrection at home and with their oil exports blocked, Khamenei and the mullahs, egged on by trigger-happy Revolutionary Guards, may choose to export chaos instead."
Simon Tisdall
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 5 January 2012
"Tehran's vow to prevent US warships transiting international waters in the strait of Hormuz, following 10 days of provocative Iranian missile tests and naval exercises, is seen in Washington as evidence that ramped-up western sanctions are finally beginning to bite.
While this conclusion may be correct, there is always the danger of a disastrous miscalculation. Iran could be merely sabre-rattling, as American analysts suggest. But what if it is not?
Seen from Tehran, the most serious threat to the survival of the regime led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei comes from within, not without – a consideration not sufficiently understood in the west. The political establishment is riven by deep divisions, principally between economic reformers loyal to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and clerical arch-conservatives backed by the Revolutionary Guards and a wealthy, corrupt merchant class that has grown fat on the 1979 revolution.....
In other words, confident statements by the White House and state department that Iran is buckling under sanctions pressure appear to blithely ignore the possibility that the regime is being pushed into a corner from which it will come out punching, not negotiating. One result may be an acceleration of its nuclear activities – the opposite of what Obama wants. And then there is the unpredictable Gulf tinderbox. Fearing fatal insurrection at home and with their oil exports blocked, Khamenei and the mullahs, egged on by trigger-happy Revolutionary Guards, may choose to export chaos instead."
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