From The Vineyard of the Saker
".....Hezbollah is all too aware of how aptly the Israeli leaders conflate anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism and, unlike the PLO in the past, they will surely recognize that retaliating for Mughnieh's murder by killing innocent Jews outside Israel will be both immoral and highly counter-productive. In fact, this is exactly what the Israeli leaders now hope that Hezbollah will do as this will only serve their purposes.
No - I predict that when Hezbollah does strike, it will be at a clearly identifiable Israeli government target, probably at a very high level (ministerial or equivalent). Where can one find such targets? In Europe, of course, but also in the Middle-East itself and, last but not least. in Israel itself. Without going into details here, I don't want to be accused of giving anyone any ideas, I can say that there are several venues where mixed security jurisdictions result in relatively easy access to ministerial level personalites. For somebody willing to be arrested or die in the process, getting close to an Israeli minister is really a no-brainer. I personally have done so many times without ever being searched, x-rayed, or even challanged in any way: the Israeli security people could only provide last ditch close-up protection and the local security people (correctly) assumed that I was working for the local organizers. The fact is, getting a job which gives you physical access to world leaders is not at all has hard as some people think, and most security measures are worse than laughable. Again, if somebody wants to get close to a top official it is really easy to do so.
Could Hezbollah strike in Israel itself? I don't know, but such an attack would be much, much harder. The biggest danger for Israeli officials are people like Yigal Amir with close ties to Israeli security organizations. The closest the Palestinians ever got to killing an Isareli minister was the assassination of Rehavam Ze'evi, who had already retired and who did not take the needed precautions for his security. While Jewish fanatics of the Gush Emunim might well get close enough to kill an acting Israeli minister, I just don't see the Palestinians pulling off something like this. Could Hezbollah, who is far, far better organized and more capable than any Palestinian organization, do it? Possibly, and the psychological effect of striking at a top Israeli official inside Israel might just be worth the effort.
Needless to say, should Hezbollah attack a top Israeli official, regardless of the location of the attack, it would trigger an violent military response of Israel against Lebanon. Would that deter Hezbollah? I don't think so, in particular not with the USA blocking any solution to the political crisis in Lebanon and with the USS Cole off the Lebanese coast. What incentive does Hezbollah have to maintain the status quo?
By all accounts, Hezbollah is now fully ready with 10'000 long range and another 20'000 shorter range rockets ready to be fired at Israel. Besides, so many observers have predicted a "round 2" war between Hezbollah and the humiliated and defeated Israelis that it is a safe bet to say that Hezbollah already knows that a war will happen no matter what it does or does not do. In this context, it makes perfect sense for Hezbollah to play on the Israeli's nerves by issuing not so veiled threats while carefully planning the time and place of its retaliation. Sheikh Naim Qassem's accusations are most likely part of a psychological preparation of the battlefield for the next war."