Wednesday, January 23, 2008

350,000 Gazans stream into Egypt - situation explosive: an analysis (updated!)

A Great Analysis From
The Vineyard of the Saker

"Obviously, while this is good news for the Gazans starved by the Israeli blockade, this development is also full of potential dangers.

It is unlikely that Hamas will stop the firing of Kassam rockets across the border into Israel unless Israel agrees to stop the bombings and 'targeted assassinations' it has been conducing for months in Gaza. Israel has refused, so far, to agree to a ceasefire. With its blockade of Gaza now partially, but not fully, compromised, Israel has a number of different, but equally dangerous options facing it.....

What is certain is that time is of the essence. The longer this border remains in Hamascontrol the harder it will be for anyone to close it down again. So what will happen if the border does remain open?

That might look like a tempting idea for the Israelis: just make Gaza Mubarak's problem, just give it to the Egyptians and make it their headache. Except that the Palestinians are not Egyptians, except that Hamas has absolutely no desire or incentive to comply with any Egyptian demands or terms, not after having successfully liberated Gaza from the Israelis, except that Gaza will never be Egyptian. And this is the key factor which needs to be fully appreciated:

Gaza is now the first successfully liberated part of Palestine. It was liberated without any deals with, or concessions to, the occupying forces and it was liberated by the force of arms. Unless the Israelis re-occupy Gaza there is nothing which can alter this reality........"


This is a comment I posted on The Vineyard of the Saker

"Great analysis, VS.

While this development increases risks, it also has tremendous potential in the Arab world in general and Egypt in particular.

The regimes have never before been exposed to this degree. Their impotence and subservience to USrael is total. The street has been boiling in Egypt, while the Pharaoh is spending his last days totally removed from running a government. He does not even live in Cairo anymore. The Egyptians deeply resent his moves to bequeath his position to his son; something that has not happened since the days of the monarchy. Some limited riots about availability and price of bread have occurred.

Now with this backdrop, the Egyptians see the most deprived and abandoned Arabs (Gaza Palestinians) standing up and successfully revolting! This is a very powerful lesson which, if well absorbed and acted upon, could herald real revolutionary change in Egypt and beyond. The people are shown that they have a lot of power if they decide to exercise it. This is the lesson and that is why Hamas has been fought and isolated by USrael and their Arab regime lackeys."

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