What now for Lebanon?

Franklin Lamb
Exclusive to Al Manar

"Informed Congressional sources in Washington DC on 1/15/11 are confirming that the White House has informed Congressional Committee Chairpersons and American allies that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) will indict Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Wali al Faqih (jurisconsult or Supreme Religious Leader) for issuing the order to assassinate Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

The US and Israel believe Iran’s motive was that PM Hariri was considered a serious threat to Tehran and Damascus because their intelligence agencies established that Hariri was conspiratorially linked to Saudi Arabia, France and the United States—and by extension, Israel.

Key Congressional leaders have been advised that the execution order targeting Hariri was delivered by Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds force chief Qassem Suleymani to Hezbollah’s military commander Imad Mughniyeh. The US, Israel and their allies intend to back with an international media campaign, the STL theory that Mughniyeh and his brother-in-law, Mustapha Badr al-Dine met on several occasions and handpicked the team that carried out the assassination.

Moreover, that Syrian President Bashar al-Aassad, and his brother-in-law, Syrian Intelligence Chief Assef Shawkat, also played key roles in organizing Hariri’s assassination. The US government expects that each of these named individuals, including several Hezbollah leaders, will be indicted and convicted, almost certainly in absentia......

Despite civil war still being talked about as a possibility here in Lebanon, it has proven impossible to ignite to date even though it would suit US-Israel political goals. The sage of Lebanon, former Prime Minister Salem el Hoss predicts Lebanon is now headed for a long period of governmental stagnation while domestic and foreign actor’s angle for political and military advantages. Dr. Hoss explained that a civil war is unlikely given the attitudes of the young generation and the fact that none of the sects could successfully confront the Opposition led by Hezbollah and western powers lack credibility here.

More likely would be Israel undertaking a White House green lighted invasion of Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah and Syria as a forward base-up weakening of Iran from ground level. Congressional sources report that the Pentagon disagrees with Israel and intend to attack not from the base but from above the top of the Resistance pyramid which is Iran. The US will hit Iran hard thus hopefully opening up another attempt to peel away Syria and forced them to accept a peace deal with Israel...."