Die and Win

A Good Piece
By William S. Lind

".....The war in Iraq poses a similar question: to what degree was the Sunni insurgency part of Saddam's plan, as opposed to a reaction generated largely by bad American decisions after his government fell? The Jan. 26, 2008, Washington Post ran an article about Saddam Hussein's main American debriefer, George Piro, which may shed some light on that question. According to the Post,

"Hussein's strategy upon facing the U.S. invasion was to tell his generals to try to hold back the U.S. forces for two weeks, 'and at that point, it would go into what he called the secret war,' Piro said, referring to the Iraqi insurgency.".....

Why is the question important? Because if Saddam did plan to defeat America by going to guerrilla warfare after losing the conventional campaign, we can be reasonably certain anyone else we threaten with invasion will adopt the same plan......

....If Saddam can take the risks associated with preparing for guerrilla warfare, including spreading arms thickly all over the country and devolving much power of command downward, so can almost anyone.

That in turn creates a not insubstantial roadblock in front of neocon or neo-lib plans to "liberate" other countries. Even if the American military triumphs in another "race to Baghdad" campaign, do the American people or Congress have the stomach (or wallet) to face another guerrilla war that drags on for years? Like any good defense plan, a plan for guerrilla war against a conventionally superior invader has deterrence value. No one in his right mind wants to get into the briar patch with the tar baby.

After his capture, Saddam played for a place in history, and he played that role well. If the Sunni insurgency was part of his plan for defeating the American invasion, he will have earned some credit as a military leader, despite his gross blunders in other wars. If, as I think inevitable, other countries faced with an American threat adopt the same plan, Saddam will have lodged a barb in his assailant whose poison will work for years. He died, but perhaps he also won. In the Arab world, at least, that is a respected combination."