Wednesday, February 6, 2008

How likely is a US attack on Iran before the presidential election?

A Good Analysis by The Vineyard of the Saker

".....It is likely that most Neocons understand that while an Obama or a Hillary Administration will never allow anything contrary to the interests of Israel to happen, they will not extend the same cover to retired Neocons, not when they have become useless to their puppeteers and not when they are out of power. While the most crafty ones (Perle) will probably quietly slip away, others will probably held accountable for their misdeeds (Feith). It is therefore in their interest to try to remain in power, safely tucked away in a McCain administration.

Whereas McCain is obviously a senile and generally pathetic candidate ("bomb, bomb bomb, bomb, bomb Iran"), both Obama and Hillary have plenty of charm and even more brains (not to mention loads of corporate money). Both of them appeal to large segments of the US population and it is hard to imagine McCain winning only because he would be running against a Black man or a woman (or both). To win, McCain would need to do the only thing he knows how to do better than Obama or Hillary: rally Americans around the flag. What better opportunity to do this could there be than a war with Iran?

A war with Iran is a win-win situation for both the "visible" Neocons and the "deep government" ones. For the former, it is possibly the only way to remain in power (and, possibly, out of jail) while for the latter it is a last chance to use a group of people who will soon becomes useless anyway. If the war goes well, they will all be happy, and if it does not (which it won't), the "visible Neocons" will take the fall for the "deep government".

For all these reasons, it is very premature to dismiss the likelihood of an aggression against Iran, not before the Election, and not after. For all the recent tactical successes which the Anglos had against the Neocons, there is nothing to indicate that their power inside the US establishment has substantially weakened. If anything, the unwavering support of Speaker Pelosi for the Israel lobby shows that Congress will "know what to do" when required by the Lobby. As for the US corporate media it will, no doubt, do what it does best: make an outstanding job of packaging and delivering to its audience whatever propaganda the government (whether "deep" or not) wants it to feed the public.

The war is very much "on the table", and it will remain there as long as the US "deep government" remains in power."


I agree with this analysis and my hunch tells me that, contrary to most expectations, John McCain will probably win the White House. The Republicans know how to engineer a new war (on Iran) and the American Sheeple will, again, rally around the flag.

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